UGA · March
77.8% up
Gasoline ETF · 14 of 18 years
Dream Tree · Research
Commodities
Best calendar month to be long or short, from ~22 years of front-month futures. The ETF column is what a brokerage account can actually buy — and those odds are often weaker than the futures print because of roll.
CORN · November
81.2% down
Harvest dump survives in the ETF
UNL · April
70.6% up
12-month nat gas · UNG winter bid does not
Hogs / cattle
No ETF
COW is delisted · DBA is a sleeve only
The ETF is not the futures contract. Corn December is 86% up in futures and a coin-flip in CORN. Nat gas October does not show up in UNG. Gasoline March still does in UGA.
Trading plan (ETF only)
Use the ETF heatmap, not the futures best-month tables. Hold prior month-end to this month-end. Keep a setup only if the ETF prints ≥70% the right way, the average move is at least 1.5%, and futures still lean that way the same month. In-sample, hindsight — treat it as a satellite, not the desk.
Long-only sleeve
+8.9%
Compounded in-sample · cash the other 10 months
Core long + short
+18.2%
Same filter, shorts allowed · 5 months working
If this is 10% of the book
+0.9% / +1.8%
Long-only / core after sizing. Haircut further for overfitting.
Long-only calendar
| Month | Side | Ticker | Hit | Avg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | Long | SLV | 70% | +4.4% | 1099. Futures January also green. |
| Jul | Long | PALL | 71% | +4.3% | 1099. Skip if the ETF is too thin. |
Core calendar (shorts included)
| Month | Side | Ticker | Hit | Avg if you take the side | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | Long | SLV | 70% | +4.4% | 1099 |
| May | Short | PALL | 76% | +4.4% | Thin ETF — spreads matter |
| Jun | Short | PPLT | 71% | +2.1% | June metals hole |
| Jul | Short | UNG | 75% | +3.3% | Split July 50/50 with PALL long |
| Jul | Long | PALL | 71% | +4.3% | Same month as UNG short |
| Nov | Short | CORN | 81% | +2.1% | K-1. Harvest dump that transferred |
| Nov | Short | WEAT | 73% | +2.6% | K-1. Split November 50/50 |
Skip Corn December (86% up in futures, coin-flip in CORN) and UNG October (the winter bid does not transfer). UGA March is 78% up but only +1.3% on average — high hit, skinny payoff. CORN / WEAT are K-1.
Tickers you can actually trade
Direct = a fund whose holdings are that commodity. Proxy = a basket sleeve or related stocks, not a clean substitute. As of 2026-09-02.
| Commodity | Trade this | Fit | Also | ETF best long | P(up) | ETF best short | P(down) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | CORN | Direct | TAGS, DBA | Oct | 62.5% | Nov | 81.2% |
| Wheat | WEAT | Direct | TAGS, DBA | Oct | 64.3% | Nov | 73.3% |
| Soybeans | SOYB | Direct | TAGS, DBA | Jun | 60.0% | Aug | 60.0% |
| Soybean oil | DBA | Proxy / sleeve | SOYB | — | — | — | — |
| Soybean meal | DBA | Proxy / sleeve | SOYB | — | — | — | — |
| Oats | — | None listed | — | — | — | — | — |
| KC wheat | WEAT | Proxy / sleeve | DBA | — | — | — | — |
| Live cattle | DBA | Proxy / sleeve | COMB | — | — | — | — |
| Feeder cattle | DBA | Proxy / sleeve | COMB | — | — | — | — |
| Lean hogs | DBA | Proxy / sleeve | COMB | — | — | — | — |
| WTI crude | USO | Direct | USL, DBO | Mar | 65.0% | Aug | 61.9% |
| Brent crude | BNO | Direct | DBC, PDBC | Feb | 68.8% | Sep | 56.2% |
| Natural gas | UNG | Direct | UNL | Apr | 63.2% | Jul | 75.0% |
| Heating oil | — | None listed | UGA, USO, DBC | — | — | — | — |
| RBOB gasoline | UGA | Direct | DBC, PDBC | Mar | 77.8% | Aug | 63.2% |
| Gold | GLD | Direct | IAU, GLDM | Jan | 68.2% | May | 63.6% |
| Silver | SLV | Direct | — | Jan | 70.0% | Jun | 66.7% |
| Copper | CPER | Direct | — | Feb | 66.7% | Mar | 60.0% |
| Platinum | PPLT | Direct | — | Oct | 75.0% | Jun | 70.6% |
| Palladium | PALL | Direct | — | Sep | 81.2% | May | 76.5% |
| Coffee | DBA | Proxy / sleeve | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sugar | CANE | Direct | TAGS, DBA | Jan | 60.0% | Apr | 73.3% |
| Cotton | DBA | Proxy / sleeve | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cocoa | DBA | Proxy / sleeve | — | — | — | — | — |
| Orange juice | — | None listed | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lumber | WOOD | Proxy / sleeve | CUT | — | — | — | — |
CORN / WEAT / SOYB / CANE / TAGS / DBA / USO / USL / DBO issue a K-1. GLD, IAU, GLDM, SLV, PPLT, PALL, PDBC, UGA, UNG, BNO, CPER typically issue a 1099.
Best month to be long (futures)
Highest historical P(up) on the front-month continuation. ETF is the ticker you would use.
| Commodity | ETF | Month | P(up) | P(down) | Avg | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBOB gasoline | UGA | Mar | 95.5% | 4.5% | +15.54% | 22 |
| Corn | CORN | Dec | 86.4% | 13.6% | +6.42% | 22 |
| Feeder cattle | DBA | May | 81.0% | 19.0% | +4.72% | 21 |
| Lean hogs | DBA | Dec | 81.0% | 19.0% | +5.90% | 21 |
| Platinum | PPLT | Jan | 80.0% | 20.0% | +3.07% | 25 |
| Live cattle | DBA | Dec | 76.2% | 23.8% | +1.51% | 21 |
| Sugar | CANE | Jun | 73.9% | 26.1% | +5.57% | 23 |
| Lumber | WOOD | Nov | 73.9% | 26.1% | +7.40% | 23 |
| Wheat | WEAT | Oct | 72.7% | 27.3% | +1.98% | 22 |
| Soybeans | SOYB | Jun | 72.7% | 27.3% | +3.32% | 22 |
| Soybean meal | DBA | Jun | 72.7% | 27.3% | +4.22% | 22 |
| WTI crude | USO | Feb | 72.7% | 27.3% | +3.44% | 22 |
| Heating oil | — | Jul | 72.7% | 27.3% | +3.51% | 22 |
| Gold | GLD | Dec | 72.7% | 27.3% | +1.29% | 22 |
| Copper | CPER | Feb | 72.7% | 27.3% | +3.58% | 22 |
| Palladium | PALL | Jul | 72.7% | 27.3% | +5.55% | 22 |
| Orange juice | — | May | 71.4% | 28.6% | +2.13% | 21 |
| Brent crude | BNO | Apr | 70.6% | 29.4% | +5.04% | 17 |
| Cocoa | DBA | Jul | 69.6% | 30.4% | +2.91% | 23 |
| Cotton | DBA | Dec | 69.2% | 30.8% | +3.70% | 26 |
| Soybean oil | DBA | Oct | 68.2% | 31.8% | +2.21% | 22 |
| Natural gas | UNG | Oct | 68.2% | 27.3% | +9.75% | 22 |
| Silver | SLV | Jul | 68.2% | 31.8% | +5.14% | 22 |
| KC wheat | WEAT | Oct | 63.6% | 36.4% | +1.76% | 22 |
| Oats | — | Jan | 60.9% | 39.1% | +2.64% | 23 |
| Coffee | DBA | Jul | 60.9% | 39.1% | +1.81% | 23 |
Best month to be short (futures)
| Commodity | ETF | Month | P(down) | P(up) | Avg | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lean hogs | DBA | Aug | 91.3% | 8.7% | -14.53% | 23 |
| RBOB gasoline | UGA | Sep | 81.0% | 19.0% | -8.74% | 21 |
| Silver | SLV | Jun | 77.3% | 22.7% | -6.00% | 22 |
| Platinum | PPLT | Jun | 75.0% | 25.0% | -3.11% | 24 |
| Palladium | PALL | Jun | 75.0% | 25.0% | -4.15% | 24 |
| Soybean meal | DBA | Sep | 72.7% | 27.3% | -6.90% | 22 |
| KC wheat | WEAT | Nov | 72.7% | 27.3% | -1.16% | 22 |
| Live cattle | DBA | May | 72.7% | 27.3% | -3.04% | 22 |
| Natural gas | UNG | Jul | 72.7% | 27.3% | -1.79% | 22 |
| Corn | CORN | Nov | 69.6% | 30.4% | -0.42% | 23 |
| Coffee | DBA | Mar | 69.6% | 30.4% | -1.37% | 23 |
| Sugar | CANE | Apr | 69.6% | 30.4% | -3.09% | 23 |
| Lumber | WOOD | Sep | 69.6% | 30.4% | -5.61% | 23 |
| Cocoa | DBA | Oct | 68.2% | 31.8% | -3.25% | 22 |
| Soybeans | SOYB | Sep | 66.7% | 33.3% | -3.98% | 21 |
| Feeder cattle | DBA | Jan | 66.7% | 33.3% | -0.35% | 21 |
| Cotton | DBA | May | 66.7% | 33.3% | -2.21% | 27 |
| Oats | — | Jul | 65.2% | 34.8% | -2.74% | 23 |
| Copper | CPER | Aug | 65.2% | 34.8% | -1.17% | 23 |
| Soybean oil | DBA | Sep | 63.6% | 36.4% | -2.68% | 22 |
| WTI crude | USO | Oct | 63.6% | 36.4% | -2.24% | 22 |
| Gold | GLD | Jun | 63.6% | 36.4% | -2.02% | 22 |
| Wheat | WEAT | Nov | 60.9% | 39.1% | -1.18% | 23 |
| Heating oil | — | Oct | 59.1% | 40.9% | -0.42% | 22 |
| Orange juice | — | Apr | 59.1% | 40.9% | -1.48% | 22 |
| Brent crude | BNO | Oct | 58.8% | 41.2% | -1.83% | 17 |
Monthly P(up)
Green ≥70% up years, red ≤35%. Bold is that series’ best long month. ETF view is single-name funds only.
P(up)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Grains
Corn
Teucrium corn futures ladder (not front-month). K-1.
CORN
ZC=F
Futures best long
Dec 86.4%
avg +6.42%
Futures best short
Nov 69.6%
avg -0.42%
CORN best long
Oct 62.5%
avg +2.76%
CORN best short
Nov 81.2%
avg -2.12%
P(up) — CORN
Jan63%
Feb56%
Mar50%
Apr56%
May31%
Jun31%
Jul31%
Aug47%
Sep50%
Oct63%
Nov19%
Dec50%
Average monthly return — CORN
Jan+1.02%
Feb-0.05%
Mar+0.05%
Apr+1.57%
May-1.51%
Jun-2.36%
Jul-0.88%
Aug+1.09%
Sep-1.04%
Oct+2.76%
Nov-2.12%
Dec+1.53%
Basket ETFs
If you do not want a single commodity. DBA is the leftover home for livestock / coffee / cocoa / cotton after the iPath notes died.
| Ticker | Fund | Covers | Best long | P(up) | Best short | P(down) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DBA | Invesco DB Agriculture | Corn, soy, wheat, cattle, hogs, sugar, cotton, cocoa, coffee | Apr | 65.0% | May | 65.0% |
| TAGS | Teucrium Agricultural Fund | Equal CORN + WEAT + SOYB + CANE | Jan | 64.3% | Nov | 71.4% |
| DBC | Invesco DB Commodity | Energy, metals, ag basket | Apr | 66.7% | Aug | 66.7% |
| PDBC | Invesco Optimum Yield Commodity No K-1 | Same idea as DBC, 1099 instead of K-1 | Sep | 72.7% | Dec | 81.8% |
Research only. Month-end close vs prior month-end. Incomplete current month dropped. Front-month futures include rolls; ETFs hold a curve and pay that roll. Confirm K-1 vs 1099 with the issuer.